Pioneers Of 2024: Decoding The Dynamics Of ‘Semi-Final’ State Polls Before General Elections

The political climate in India is dynamic as the country prepares for another round of state assembly elections. These elections in 679 districts in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram are very consequential. These elections are highly anticipated since they are the penultimate set of state assembly elections before the next federal elections and because the BJP and Congress directly compete in three of these states. Even while voters in various states have proven in the past to make different choices in assembly and Lok Sabha elections, there are underlying themes that might have long-lasting effects on the national stage.

The Role of Surveys and the Caste System

In recent assembly elections, caste is an important consideration. The Congress leader in Rajasthan, Ashok Gehlot, has ordered a caste survey as the topic of caste continues to resonate throughout the state. To further demonstrate their resolve to tackle caste-based concerns on a national scale, the Congress has called for a nationwide caste survey. The BJP has not clearly stated where it stands on this issue, and the results of these state elections may affect how it deals with caste dynamics in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

A Recurring Theme of Altruism

Welfarism has arisen as a unifying ideology that cuts across political affiliation and national boundaries. Political parties have turned to assistance packages to reduce the dangers of working in the informal economy when economic development is insufficient to create enough jobs in the official sector. For instance, in Telangana, a state with a thriving economy, the Congress party has carefully developed a welfare package based on “guarantees.” To combat anti-incumbency feelings, the BJP in Madhya Pradesh has relied chiefly on its social projects, such as a monthly cash transfer to women. To some extent, Bhupesh Baghel of Chhattisgarh looks to be the least vulnerable incumbent because of the attention paid to farmers’ concerns in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana.

Within the Parties

The internal dynamics of political parties may be seen in these state elections as well. The BJP has demonstrated less of a willingness to elevate state-level leaders, as shown in Rajasthan and even in the instance of Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh. At the same time, Congress has exhibited a trend toward devolving greater authority to state leaders. In Telangana, Congress has surpassed the BJP to become a serious opponent to K. Chandrasekhar Rao’s TRS party.

The New Star of Mizoram

A new political force, the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), has emerged in Mizoram, threatening the supremacy of the Congress and the Mizo National Front (MNF). Mizoram’s three-way race promises to be a high-stakes, exciting election to witness.


Everyone in the country is waiting with bated breath for the results of the approaching general election, which the underlying themes of caste, welfarism, and pastoral concerns will shape. The outcomes of these assembly elections are more than simply a barometer of local preferences; they also foretell the future of India’s complicated and ever-changing political environment.