It was odd that, despite Congress’ strained relations, the other opposition parties remained silent or designated themselves as “like-minded” groups. After two years in office, Narendra Modi’s second term is coming to a conclusion. Second, Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination has been 30 years ago. Time to look at the political futures of India’s two main political parties, which will both be celebrating their 100th birthdays in the summer of 2024.
Our focus is on the present, and we won’t linger on the past. The past may not always give the best indicator of the future in both mutual fund investing and politics. All non-Congress opposition parties with more than a 1% vote share don’t sum up to 20% of the total vote, which was the Congress’s total. This is true even for UPA allies like DMK and NCP. Even after two electoral failures, Congress still had a 20% vote share of the people it was elected to represent. On the other side, almost every major anti-BJP party saw an increase in popularity.
Here’s a test for you. Although 92:8 was a long time ago, Congress remains the sole rival for national authority, no matter how remote it may be from us. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are the two most influential personalities in Indian politics right now. Even if they are not fooled by Congress’s authority, they are aware of its weight and do not underestimate it.
The villains’ fates are interwoven. A very distant also-ran of national politics, we know that in the third decade after Rajiv Gandhi’s murder, we have the party that he left behind. Nearly 90% of the seats in the 2014 and 2019 general elections were won by the BJP’s primary opposition. It was 88:12 in 2014, and it will be 92:8 in the year of our Lord. A reasonable question is: why bring up the Congress’ future at all while evaluating the BJP’s prospects?
Even though they were defeated 92:8, the BJP was still the closest rival to the Congress in that contest. It’s also worth noting that the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, garnered around 38% of the vote (all values rounded off).
What’s the big deal about half of them? No other party in the nation had a vote total of more than 10,000. Alternatively, what if I informed you that no other three parties, even among NDA allies, totaled more than ten members?
