Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s project launching frenzy, generously laced with religious preaching, and Akhilesh Yadav’s Vijay Yatra crisscrossing UP have made it plain that, for the time being, the SP is the BJP’s main rival in India’s most critical assembly elections. UP has experienced four-cornered battles in the past, with small transfers of votes determining or breaking electoral fortunes. If the 2022 elections are essentially a bipolar struggle, the political dynamic may shift, with greater possibilities for both the BJP and the SP. And, with elections being conducted in the shadow of another Covid strain, the pandemic’s effect on millions of aam voters in the state may play a role in addition to the normal metrics of caste, community, and sub-region.

Yogi Adityanath is a BJP CM with a distinct identity, whether for fans or detractors. However, as shown by big ceremonies centred on the Jewar airport, the Purvanchal highway, and the Kashi Viswanath corridor, Varanasi MP Narendra Modi will lead the BJP’s push in UP. The infrastructure boom has given the BJP bragging rights to tout the benefits of having the same party run both the Centre and the state. Meanwhile, subliminal and not-so-subliminal propaganda on ‘appeasement’ and Mughal emperors is only the start of what will undoubtedly be a lengthy Hindutva playlist. Add to this the BJP’s effectiveness in implementing certain social programmes and micro castle control. Currently, the BJP looks to be in the lead, as shown by opinion surveys.

Akhilesh is hell-bent on exaggerating the caste census demand and unemployment. With two allies – RLD and SBSP – with pockets of strength in west and east UP at his side, Akhilesh would hope for a better showing, particularly in western UP, where the BJP may face farmers’ fury even after repealing agricultural rules. The most difficult obstacle for SP is its limited appeal. In 2012, the party won 224 seats with just 29 per cent of the vote. In comparison, the BJP-led NDA won 42 per cent of the vote and 312 seats in 2017. SP would seek to capitalise on anti-incumbency and see how many Dalit and Muslim votes it can wrest from the BSP, provided Mayawati stays as listless as she seems today.

The Congress Party, headed by Priyanka Gandhi, has failed to pique voter attention. Still, its focus on women voters demonstrates that it has learned the painful lesson of losing other social segments. UP is the most ruthless of all political tests in India’s difficult political marketplace. Congress does not seem to be persuasive, at least for now.